In recent weeks, US President-elect Donald Trump has revived his interest in acquiring Greenland, the world’s largest island and a largely self-governing territory of Denmark in the Arctic. Trump first expressed a desire to buy Greenland in 2019 during his first presidential term, but this week he escalated his stance, suggesting the use of economic or military force to secure control over the island. Danish and European leaders have strongly rejected this idea, stating that Greenland is not for sale and its territorial integrity must be maintained.

The situation raises questions about how tensions might evolve between two NATO allies over such a vast, icy region rich in untapped mineral resources. Additionally, how might the push for independence among Greenland’s 56,000 residents, who have been under Danish control for 300 years, influence the outcome?

Here are four possible scenarios for Greenland’s future:

1. Trump Loses Interest and Nothing Changes Some believe that Trump’s recent comments are just bluster aimed at pressuring Denmark to strengthen Greenland’s defense in response to growing Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic. Denmark recently announced a $1.5bn military investment in the region, which some interpreted as a response to Trump’s remarks. Experts suggest that Trump may be positioning himself ahead of taking office, while Greenland seeks to strengthen its international standing, potentially moving toward independence. While Trump may eventually lose interest, his comments have raised awareness about the issue.

2. Greenland Pursues Independence and Strengthens US Ties There is broad agreement in Greenland that independence will eventually happen. If the Greenlandic population votes for independence, Denmark is expected to honor that decision. However, Greenland would likely seek assurances from Denmark regarding continued financial support for essential services like healthcare and welfare before moving forward. A possible middle ground could be a “free association” status, similar to the relationship the US has with Pacific nations like the Marshall Islands and Palau. While Denmark has historically opposed this arrangement, current Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen might be more open to it, given an evolving understanding of Greenland’s history. However, even in the event of independence, Greenland would likely still maintain a close relationship with the US, which has longstanding strategic interests in the island dating back to World War II.

3. Trump Increases Economic Pressure There is speculation that Trump might use economic pressure, such as imposing high tariffs on Danish and European goods, to force Denmark to make concessions regarding Greenland. With the threat of tariffs on US imports, including pharmaceuticals and medical supplies from Denmark, the US could leverage its economic power to influence Denmark’s stance on Greenland. This could prompt European companies to relocate production to the US, exacerbating the pressure.

4. Trump Takes Military Action While it seems unlikely, Trump’s refusal to rule out military action has raised concerns. The US already has military bases and personnel stationed in Greenland, giving them a strong foothold. If the US were to take control of Greenland militarily, it would create a major international incident, triggering NATO’s Article 5, which calls for collective defense. This would be a significant crisis for the Western alliance and could have broader geopolitical ramifications, similar to the tensions over Taiwan with China or Ukraine with Russia.

Each of these scenarios offers a different outlook on the future of Greenland, with its strategic location, mineral wealth, and the aspirations of its population for self-determination shaping its potential path forward.