How Much Will Donald Trump’s Tariffs Cost U.S. Families?

How Much Will Donald Trump’s Tariffs Cost U.S. Families?

United States President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on foreign goods have unsettled consumers, businesses, and the stock market. But what is the real cost to the average American household?

On April 27, during an appearance on CNN’s State of the Union, U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer addressed this question. The New York Democrat claimed that Trump failed to explain to voters that tariffs would raise consumer prices, saying, “It’s estimated it’ll raise American costs … American families would have to pay about $4,000 more a year.”

Calculating the exact impact of tariffs on households requires assumptions, especially given Trump’s frequent changes to what goods are subject to tariffs and when. However, Schumer’s figure aligns with multiple independent estimates PolitiFact reviewed.

Most Estimates Fall Around $4,000

PolitiFact identified five estimates of the average annual cost to American families from Trump’s tariffs (prior to April 2), including tariffs on Canada and Mexico, a 10 percent universal tariff, and a 145 percent tariff on Chinese goods. These estimates do not account for the higher country-specific tariffs announced on April 2, which were paused for 90 days starting April 9.

Here’s what the data shows:

Yale Budget Lab: The nonpartisan lab estimated an average loss per household of $4,900. A more limited calculation, which assumes consumer behavior changes due to the tariffs, lowered the estimate to $2,600 per family.
Center for American Progress: This liberal think tank projected an average annual cost of $4,600.
American Action Forum: The center-right group estimated a $3,900 loss per household. Analyst Jacob Jensen noted that extremely high tariffs, like the 145 percent rate on China, tend to reduce purchases so drastically that they may generate less revenue than moderate tariffs.
Tax Policy Center (Urban Institute–Brookings): A nonpartisan estimate put the household cost at $3,100 per year.
Tax Foundation: The center-right organization provided the lowest figure, estimating $1,243 in annual losses, focusing strictly on 2025’s direct tax-related costs. Erica York, VP of Federal Tax Policy, explained that this narrower analysis does not include factors like quality-of-life declines, monetary policy effects, or longer-term impacts into 2026.

Lower-Income Households Hit Hardest

The Yale Budget Lab noted that the economic pain is not distributed equally. Families earning between $30,000 and $40,000 a year could lose 5.1 percent of their income—more than double the proportional hit faced by households earning over $100,000 annually.

Final Verdict

Schumer’s claim that American families will pay about $4,000 more a year due to Trump’s tariffs is supported by four out of five independent estimates. While the exact figure varies depending on methodology, the general range supports his assertion.